President Donald Trump appears more concerned about US-made weapons and equipment now in the hands of the Taliban than about leaving them behind in the first place. His recently announced plans to retrieve the weapons sound like empty rhetoric. While a full-scale probe into and supposed action over the "flawed" US withdrawal can help pin responsibility, it is unlikely to help reclaim the lost ‘treasure.’
The US withdrawal gave birth to a new security dilemma, which Washington seems ill-prepared to handle. Now, Trump wants to link future aid to the return of US military equipment. Although the move is bold, it is unlikely to serve the purpose, given that other regional players like China and Russia are sitting ready to fill the vacuum for strategic gains.
Over the last few days, Trump has frequently growled in “anger” while discussing the Afghan Taliban forces flaunting the sophisticated weaponry. He has also publicly shared US intentions of regaining control of the 30-square-mile Bagram Airfield. However, the objectives are ill-defined and lack a clear roadmap.
It is hard to recall any invading power successfully reclaiming its abandoned or captured military equipment, wealth, or resources after withdrawal without jumping back into the warzone. The Taliban, too, are unlikely to give up the spoils of war. Even if attempts are made to buy the equipment back, they know that doing so would weaken their military. Shockingly, not all of the quarter-million rifles and 70,000 armored trucks are in their possession anymore. A significant portion of that booty has already crossed borders in exchange for dollars, and the Taliban have made no secret of that.
For the region, especially Pakistan, the major concern is the proliferation of weapons beyond Afghanistan’s borders. For this reason, any Trump-Taliban treaty must include a stipulation that Afghan forces would cease to use these weapons against neighbors, both directly and through the TTP and other militant groups
However, Afghanistan is no Iraq, where US troops can just go for a post-war operation. The Taliban are no longer fragmented but an established government controlling nearly the entire country. Given these realities, it appears difficult to persuade the Taliban to return the bounty.
Trump must bear this in mind and come up with an unconventional strategy to engage with the Taliban. He must also ensure that any agreement in that direction is not merely symbolic, where a few low-value items are returned in a show of cooperation. For the region, especially Pakistan, the major concern is the proliferation of weapons beyond Afghanistan’s borders. For this reason, any Trump-Taliban treaty must include a stipulation that Afghan forces would cease to use these weapons against neighbors, both directly and through the TTP and other militant groups.
At the same time, the US must engage with regional powers to track and limit arms trade to mitigate the consequences of its withdrawal. Trump pulling off either of these stunts will be unprecedented in modern history. However, failure could spark new insurgencies and destabilize the region.
