Oil prices climbed Thursday as traders weighed prospects for a Middle East ceasefire, even though Iran insisted it has no plans to hold talks.
Supply disruptions from Russia and the Gulf added pressure to global energy markets.
Brent crude rose $1.13, or 1.1%, to $103.35 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased $1.08, or 1.2%, to $91.40 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2% the previous day.
Market watchers attribute the rebound to renewed assessment of potential diplomatic resolutions in the Gulf, even as optimism for a ceasefire appears limited.
Iran reviews US proposal, but rejects talks
Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the country is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal but “has no intention of holding talks” to end the conflict.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that President Donald Trump would hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to acknowledge its military setbacks.
Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute, said, “Optimism regarding a ceasefire has faded,” noting that Washington’s demands make progress toward negotiations challenging and leave oil markets exposed to volatility.
Key elements of US proposal
Trump’s 15-point plan, reportedly transmitted through Pakistan, calls for:
- Removing Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium
- Halting nuclear enrichment
- Curtailing ballistic missile development
- Cutting funding to regional allies
Israeli cabinet sources familiar with the plan confirm these measures form the basis of U.S. expectations for Tehran.
Supply disruptions intensify
The conflict has severely restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global crude oil and LNG. The International Energy Agency (IEA) described it as the largest-ever oil supply disruption.
Iraq’s oil production has declined sharply, with storage tanks approaching critical levels, according to Iraqi energy officials.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes, a contested pipeline attack, and tanker seizures have halted approximately 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, further squeezing global supply.
India has purchased its first Iranian liquefied petroleum gas shipment in years after Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Tehran’s oil and refined fuels.
Japan is seeking additional IEA-coordinated releases of oil stockpiles, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said, as Tokyo braces for the possibility of a prolonged conflict in the Gulf.
Adding a counterbalance to supply worries, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.9 million barrels to 456.2 million barrels for the week ending March 20. This increase far exceeded analysts’ expectations of 477,000 barrels and marks the highest level since June 2024.
